ASX to edge down, August jobs data pending, US stocks mixed

   2023-09-13 18:09

Australian shares were poised to edge lower with August’s jobs data pending. Stocks were mixed in New York.

ASX futures were down 3 points to 7155 near 7am AEST.

  • On Wall St: Dow -0.2% S&P +0.1% Nasdaq +0.3%
  • In New York: BHP -0.6% Rio -0.1% Atlassian -1.1%
  • Tesla +1.4% Apple -1.2% Amazon +2.6% VIX -5.3%

The local currency slipped 0.1 per cent; the Bloomberg dollar spot index edged lower too.

On, bitcoin was 0.4 per cent higher to $US26,228 at 7.06am AEST.

The yield on the US 10-year note fell 3 basis points to 4.25 per cent at 4.59pm in New York.


On Wall Street, shares were mixed as economists parsed the latest CPI data with details both bolstering the case for a pause at next week’s Fed policy meeting and keep the door open to an increase in November.

Citigroup rose 1.7 per cent after CEO Jane Fraser announced a major management reorganisation that will result in more job cuts and give her greater direct oversight over the bank as she seeks to simplify its structure.

SoftBank Group Corp’s chip designer Arm Holdings was discussing pricing its U.S. initial public offering (IPO) at $US52 per share in a meeting with its investment bankers, Reuters reported.

If this pricing is finalised, it would be above Arm’s indicated $US47-$US51 price range and would raise $US4.97 billion for SoftBank, and it would infer a valuation on Arm on a fully diluted basis of $US55.5 billion.

Today’s agenda

Local: MI consumer inflation expectations September at 11am; Labour force August at 11.30am


Overseas data: Japan machinery orders July, industrial production July; European Central Bank policy decision at 10.15pm, US retail sales and final PPI August at 10.30pm

Other top stories

Qantas offers fast compo in $200m saga as sackings ruled illegal The High Court found Qantas illegally sacked nearly 1700 workers during the pandemic as part of a ruling that could cost the airline up to $200 million.

Fuel price jump hits households and inflation outlook Spending on petrol jumped 9.5 per cent last month as households grapple with a surge in fuel prices that is expected to add to Australia’s inflation problem.

Bank bosses tip ‘soft landing’, ‘no recession’ Westpac boss Peter King and NAB chief Ross McEwan have delivered positive economic assessments, while in Canberra to meet Treasurer Jim Chalmers.

Market highlights


ASX futures down 3 points to 7155 near 7am AEST

  • AUD -0.1% to 64.22 US cents
  • Bitcoin +0.4% to $US26,228 at 7.06am AEST
  • On Wall St: Dow -0.2% S&P +0.1% Nasdaq +0.3%
  • In New York: BHP -0.6% Rio -0.1% Atlassian -1.1%
  • Tesla +1.4% Apple -1.2% Amazon +2.6% VIX -5.3%
  • Stoxx 50 -0.4% FTSE -0.02% CAC -0.4% DAX -0.4%
  • Spot gold -0.2% to $US1909.91/oz at 2.15pm in New York
  • Brent crude -0.3% to $US91.75 a barrel
  • Iron ore +0.3% to $US119.45 a tonne
  • 10-year yield: US 4.25% Australia 4.14% Germany 2.65%
  • US prices as of 4.59pm in New York

United States

Another Fed rate rise in play as US CPI picks up The report adds to concerns that the renewed momentum in the economy is reigniting price pressures and could lead the US Federal Reserve to lift rates.

Is the US CPI data pointing to higher rates? Economists continue to see the Federal Reserve holding rates steady next week, though the jury’s still out on a potential November increase.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned against excessive optimism about the US being able to quell inflation without an economic downturn.


“It’s a very narrow window to achieve that soft landing,” Summers told Bloomberg “There is no sign” at this point that this is a “2 per cent inflation economy”, he said, adding that “the Fed is right to be data dependent” in setting its policy.

There’s about a one-in-three chance for each of three scenarios, Summers said: a soft landing, a “no landing, with inflation never really getting below 3 per cent”, and a harder landing where the Fed’s cumulative rate hikes hit the economy.

“People need to be very careful about declaring victory — to be very careful about some assets, particularly in the stock market,” said Summers. “It may be priced a bit for perfection.”


Oil hovered near its highs of the year as the International Energy Agency added to a drumbeat of forecasts that the market will tip into a significant deficit in the second half of this year.


Demand will eclipse supply by 1.2 million barrels a day on average during the second half, the IEA projected Wednesday. That follows a forecast from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries that the fourth quarter may see the biggest deficit in more than a decade.

In a note, JPMorgan strategists said: “We have noted in the past that the IEA has typically been more conservative than OPEC in its initial oil demand forecasts, and usually revises forecasts upwards during the year, while OPEC has proven historically more prudent in demand forecasting.”

The strategists view on OPEC: “The latest extensions of voluntary production/export cuts highlight the unity of the alliance …. We believe this doesn’t translate into weaker demand outlook and this has once again been shown in OPEC’s latest demand forecast. Rather, the cuts aim to further reduce global oil inventories and mitigate downside price volatility and should be viewed as conducive for the sector’s investment programme.

“We continue to look for signs from OPEC (or its key members) to add barrels to the market – a clear indication of a strong nomination queue and accordingly, an indication of a further improving demand outlook.”

TD Securities: ”Gold has remained subdued as traders sold into a soft-landing theme amid fears of higher-for-longer rates. The modest upside surprise in this morning’s US inflation data could further compound these fears and keep the precious metals complex on the back foot. However, the yellow metal could find support fairly quickly, with additional important data on the calendar for tomorrow.

“In this sense, a weaker retail sales number tomorrow could provide an offset to the inflation data and offer a challenge to the soft-landing narrative. In turn, this could be the catalyst needed to ignite some fireworks in gold prices, particularly as CTAs could look to cover shorts above the $US1928/oz mark.”

Timothy Moore writes on monetary policy, equities, commodities and currencies. He is the overnight markets editor and writes Before the Bell. Connect with Timothy on Twitter. Email Timothy at [email protected]

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